Chinese stocks up 60% since mid-July

Examining the Dow Jones Shanghai index ($ DJSH) it is apparent, that the third B sub-wave since the 2008 trough (wave A) is not complete, mainly due to the fact that it is less by 10 units relative to the first B sub-wave.


A reasonable target would be [ W1=400-175 ; DJSH=230+Fib*W1 ].


By setting Fib=1.618 a value of 594 is obtained. Before reaching this number, more probably the index will find great resistance at the previous double top at the approximate level of 580, which (to my mind) would constitute a more realistic goal.


The Fib parameter of 1.618, from my experience, is not rigid and in the case of country indices depends on a beta function relative, for instance, to an all world index such as FTSE ($ FAW) [others may also be chosen].


In the present case, the appropriate period for beta function calculation is 2007-2009, during which the correlation between DJSH & FAW reached acceptably high values above 0.75.

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